Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Single dan Double Exponential Smoothing
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30872/jim.v15i1.3180Keywords:
Kemiskinan, Prediksi, Single, Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt, Brown, MAPEAbstract
Kemiskinan erat kaitannya dengan proses pembangunan, jika jumlah kemiskinan tinggi maka dapat menghambat pembangunan ekonomi, jadi diperlukan peramalan untuk mengetahui jumlah kemiskinan di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur yang berpengaruh terhadap kebijakan pemerintah dalam pengambilan keputusan sebelum terjadinya peningkatan jumlah kemiskinan di tahun yang akan datang. Peramalan kemiskinan ini berdasarkan data aktual dalam kurun waktu 9 tahun yaitu dari tahun 2010 sampai tahun 2018 menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dan Double Exponential Smoothing Brown dan Holt dengan nilai α (alpha) dan β (beta) 0,1 sampai dengan 0,9 sebagai parameter pemulusan. Metode akurasi yang digunakan yaitu Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk menghitung persentase error dengan menggunakan nilai α (alpha) dan β (beta). Hasil terbaik tahun 2019 untuk data kemiskinan pada metode Single Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai α (alpha) 0,9 sebesar 440.905 jiwa dengan MAPE 10,94%. Hasil terbaik untuk metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown dengan nilai α (alpha) 0,5 sebesar 438.195 jiwa dengan MAPE 14,90% dan hasil terbaik untuk metode Double Exponential Smoothing menurut Holt dengan nilai α (alpha) 0,9, β (beta) 0,8 sebesar 448.474 jiwa dengan MAPE 14,81%. Jadi, hasil peramalan metode yang baik yaitu Single Exponential Smoothing dan Double Exponential Smoothing Holt untuk data Kemiskinan di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur.References
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