ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI KABUPATEN BERAU
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35941/jatl.2.2.2020.2738.61-70Abstract
Peningkatan jumlah penduduk akan meningkatkan jumlah konsumsi beras. Di sisi lain produksi beras walaupun meningkat, tetapi tetap belum dapat mencukupi kebutuhan akan beras di Kabupaten Berau. Oleh karena itu guna mencukupi kebutuhan akan beras, maka didatangkan beras dari luar daerah. Penelitian ini berjudul Analisis Faktor- faktor yang Mempengaruhi Impor Beras dio Kabupaten Berau.
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui korelasi produksi beras, konsumsi penduduk, jumlah penduduk dan kurs terhadap impor beras di Kabupaten Berau dan untuk mengetahui pengaruh produksi beras, konsumsi penduduk, jumlah penduduk dan kurs secara parsial dan serentak terhadap impor beras di Kabupaten Berau.
Penelitian dilakukan dari bulan desember 2017 sampai Maret 2018 dengan menggunakan data sekunder yang berasal dari Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Berau, Dinas Pertanian dan Peternakan Kabupaten Berau, Dinas Pangan Kabupaten Berau, Bank Indonesia dan Kantor Bulog Kabupaten Berau berupa data dari tahun 2007 sampai 2017. Analisa data menggunakan metode Regresi Linier Berganda dengan program SPSS versi 22.
Hasil analisa data menunjukkan bahwa terdapat variabel exclude, yaitu konsumsi penduduk sehingga variabel bebasnya berkurang satu dan terdiri dari variabel produksi beras, jumlah penduduk dan kurs.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa impor beras di Kabupaten Berau 87,7 persen dipengaruhi oleh variabel (X1–(-0,614*Lag(X1)) ; (X3–(-0,614*Lag(X3)) dan (X4–(-0,614*Lag(X4)) sedangkan 12,3 persen dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain . Model regresi yang dihasilkan adalah Y-(-0,614*Lag(Y)) =167908,194 + 4,372 (X1-(-0,614*Lag(X1)) - 1,320(X3–(-0,614*Lag(X3))) + 7,011 (X4-(-0,614*Lag (X4))) + e. dari nilai signifikan F Change adalah 0,001 yang berarti model ini dikatakan valid. Dari uji parsial diketahui bahwa masing- masing variabel bebas yaitu (X1–(-0,614*Lag(X1)) ; (X3–(-0,614*Lag(X3)) dan (X4–(-0,614*Lag(X4)) secara parsial dan serentak memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap variabel terikat yaitu Y-(-0,614*Lag(Y).
Kata Kunci :
Produksi beras, konsumsi penduduk, jumlah penduduk , kurs, impor beras.
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