Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Daya Listrik PT PLN (Persero) Area Berau Tahun 2025-2027 dengan Metode Regresi Linear

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30872/electrops.v4i1.22835

Keywords:

Peramalan, Regresi Linear, Kebutuhan Listrik, Daya Tersambung, MAPE

Abstract

Penelitian ini memprediksi kebutuhan listrik di Kabupaten Berau untuk 2025-2027 menggunakan regresi linear sederhana. Analisis data 2019-2024 menunjukkan tren pertumbuhan jumlah pelanggan dan daya tersambung yang konsisten. Model regresi memperkirakan kenaikan pelanggan sebesar 464,96 per bulan dan daya tersambung bertambah 1,04 MVA tiap bulan. Validasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) menunjukkan tingkat kesalahan rendah, yaitu 0,6% untuk pelanggan listrik dan 3,7% untuk daya tersambung. Hasil peramalan memproyeksikan peningkatan pelanggan dari 89.331 pada 2024 menjadi 105.908 pada 2027, serta daya tersambung dari 183,90 MVA menjadi 207,57 MVA. Untuk menghadapi lonjakan permintaan, PT PLN (Persero) perlu meningkatkan infrastruktur serta menyediakan cadangan daya sebesar 13,10 MVA guna menjaga stabilitas pasokan listrik.

References

PT PLN, “Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) PLN,” 2017.

A. Guidebook, “Expansion Planning for Electrical Generating Systems,” Int. At. Energy Agency, EUA, 1984.

M. Yazid and R. Dinzi, “Perbandingan Metode Gabungan Dan Metode Kecenderungan (Regresi Linier) Untuk Prakiraan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik Wilayah Sumatera Utara,” Singuda Ensikom, vol. 11, no. 29, pp. 7–12, 2018.

A. Khair and H. Ashari, “Studi Prediksi Penggunaan Energi Listrik di Desa Sanglepongan Kabupaten Enrekang dengan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average (MA),” Jurnal Media Elektrik, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 63–68, 2021.

R. H. Prihastama and M. Arif, “Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Penjualan Energi Listrik PT. PLN di Kalimantan Barat Tahun 2012-2020,” Komitmen: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 98–108, 2023.

I. Sholeh, U. Situmeang, and M. Monice, “Studi Peramalan Beban Pada Gardu Induk TeLuk Lembu Uip3bs Upt Pekanbaru PT. PLN (PERSERO),” in SENKIM: Seminar Nasional Karya Ilmiah Multidisiplin, 2021, pp. 11–26.

Downloads

Published

2025-10-13

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): ELECTROPS : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro

Section

Articles

License

The copyright of this article is transferred to ELECTROPS : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro and when the article is accepted for publication. the authors transfer all and all rights into and to paper including but not limited to all copyrights in the ELECTROPS : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro. The author represents and warrants that the original is the original and that he/she is the author of this paper unless the material is clearly identified as the original source, with notification of the permission of the copyright owner if necessary. The author states that he has the authority and authority to make and carry out this task.
The author states that:

  1. This paper has not been published in the same form elsewhere.
  2. This will not be submitted elsewhere for publication prior to acceptance/rejection by this Journal.

A Copyright permission is obtained for material published elsewhere and who require permission for this reproduction. Furthermore, I / We hereby transfer the unlimited publication rights of the above paper to ELECTROPS : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro. Copyright transfer includes exclusive rights to reproduce and distribute articles, including reprints, translations, photographic reproductions, microforms, electronic forms (offline, online), or other similar reproductions.

The author's mark is appropriate for and accepts responsibility for releasing this material on behalf of any and all coauthor. This Agreement shall be signed by at least one author who has obtained the consent of the co-author (s) if applicable. After the submission of this agreement is signed by the author concerned, the amendment of the author or in the order of the author listed shall not be accepted.

Rights / Terms and Conditions Saved

  1. The author keeps all proprietary rights in every process, procedure, or article creation described in Work.
  2. The author may reproduce or permit others to reproduce the work or derivative works for the author's personal use or for the use of the company, provided that the source and the Informatika Mulawarman copyright notice are indicated, the copy is not used in any way implying the ELECTROPS : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro approval of the product or service from any company, and the copy itself is not offered for sale.
  3. Although authors are permitted to reuse all or part of the Works in other works, this does not include granting third-party requests to reprint, republish, or other types of reuse.