Sistem Peramalan Kesempatan Kerja Terhadap Pencari Kerja Terdaftar Dengan Metode Arima Pada Kota Samarinda

Authors

Keywords:

Peramalan, Pencari Kerja, ARIMA, Mean Squared Error (MSE),

Abstract

Pencari kerja terdaftar adalah angkatan kerja yang sedang menganggur dan mencari pekerjaan maupun yang sudah bekerja tetapi ingin pindah atau alih pekerjaan dengan mendaftarkan diri kepada pelaksana penempatan tenaga kerja atau secara langsung melamar pekerjaan kepada pemberi kerja. Masalah yang dihadapi oleh Dinas Tenaga Kerja Kota Samarinda yaitu belum terdapat sistem yang dapat melakukan peramalan angka pencari kerja untuk 1 tahun mendatang yang dijadikan acuan untuk mengambil tindakan pencegahan dari tidak meratanya pencari kerja sesuai dengan tingkat pendidikannya yang meliputi bakat, minat dan pengalaman. Maka dari itu diperlukan sistem yang dapat melakukan peramalan angka pencari kerja secara otomatis. Dengan melihat pola data historis dari data pencari kerja di tahun sebelumnya, maka metode yang cocok digunakan yaitu metode peramalan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Metode ARIMA memiliki tingkat akurasi yang tinggi dan cenderung memiliki nilai error yang kecil karena prosesnya yang terperinci, setelah didapatkan hasil peramalan kemudian dicari nilai error terkecil menggunakan Mean Squared Error (MSE). Dihasilkan Sistem Peramalan Angka Pencari Kerja Terdaftar yang dapat dijadikan acauan dalam pengendalian mengatasi jumlah kesempatan kerja yang telah diuji menggunakan 60 data pencari kerja terdaftar. Hasil peramalan terbaik yaitu dengan model ARIMA (1,1,1) pada tingkat pendidikan  SD dan SMP, model ARIMA (0,1,1) pada tingkat SMA dan DIPLOMA, model ARIMA (1,1,1) pada tingkat S1 dan model ARIMA (1,1,0) pada tingkat S2.

Author Biographies

  • Firman Firman, Mulawarman University
    Ilmu Komputer
  • Zainal Arifin, Mulawarman University
    Ilmu Komputer
  • Heliza Rahmania Hatta, Mulawarman University
    Ilmu Komputer

References

Setyawan, E., Subantoro, R., & Prabowo, R. (2016). Analisis Peramalan (Forecasting). vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 11–19

Ul Ukhra, A. (2014). Pemodelan dan peramalan data deret waktu dengan metode seasonal arima. Jurnal Matematika UNAND, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 59–67.

Hadijah (2013). Peramalan Operasional Reservasi Dengan Program Minitab Menggunakan Pendekatan ARIMA PT. Surindo Andalan. Vol. 14 No. 1, pp. 13-19.

Ryan, B. F., Joiner, B. L., Cryer, J. D. (2005). MINITAB Handbook. Canada: Thomson Learning.

Wibowo.R.H dan Enterprise Jubilee, 2014. Buku Pintar VB.Net. Jakarta : Penerbit PT. Alex Media Komputindo.

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Published

2019-12-27

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 2 (2019): Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Komputer dan Teknologi Informasi (SAKTI)

Section

Articles

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