Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple Exponential Smoothing Dalam Parameter Tingkat Error Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) dan Means Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Authors

Keywords:

forecasting, Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES). Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Means Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Abstract

Teknik peramalan dapat dibedakan menjadi dua jenis yaitu teknik peramlan model kausal dan model timeseries. Pemilihan metode peramalan harus sesuai dengan gerakan/variasi data yang terbentuk agar menghasilkan ramalan yang akurat dan nilai error yang kecil. Metode peramalan yang efektif adalah metode peramalan yang menghasilkan nilai error terkecil. Penelitian ini memakai data jumlah migrasi masuk kota Samarinda untuk membandingkan antara dua metode, yaitu metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Triple exponential Smoothing, perbandingan yang menjadi parameter adalah nilai error yang dihasilkan kedua metode. Berdasarkan hasil pengolah data maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa perbandingan tingkat error dalam pengukuran metode Double Exponential Emoothing dengan nilai MAPE 17.2785% dan nilai MAD sebesar 453.6447. Pada metode Triple Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai MAPE 17.8882% dan nilai MAD sebesar 467.3268. Maka disimpulkan metode peramalan lebih tepat adalah metode Double Exponential Smoothing.

Author Biographies

  • alviani krisma, Mulawarman University
    Ilmu Komputer
  • Muhamad Azhari, Mulawarman University
    Ilmu Komputer

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Published

2019-12-27

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 2 (2019): Prosiding Seminar Nasional Ilmu Komputer dan Teknologi Informasi (SAKTI)

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