Penerapan Jaringan Heuristik untuk Prediksi Persentase Distribusi Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Atas Dasar Harga Berlaku Menurut Lapangan Usaha

Emmilya Umma Aziza Gaffar, Achmad Fanany Onnilita Gaffar, Rayner Alfred, Irwan Gani, Haviluddin Haviluddin

Abstract


Pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara diukur dengan tingkat pertumbuhan PDB yang sangat membantu untuk memprediksi situasi ekonomi dan pengembangan strategi pembangunan ekonomi. Pengukuran ini dapat dilakukan dengan menggabungkan konsep matematika komputasi dan teknologi komputer untuk menghasilkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi secara ilmiah dan tepat. Metode statistik dan machine learning serta gabungan dari keduanya telah banyak digunakan untuk aktivitas prediksi maupun peramalan. Heuristik adalah salah satu filsafat ilmu pengetahuan dan matematika yang tergolong sebagai penalaran ampliatif, merupakan pendekatan pemecahan masalah, pembelajaran, atau penemuan yang menggunakan metode praktis yang tidak dijamin optimal atau sempurna, namun cukup signifikan untuk pencapaian tujuan, Di dalam studi ini, Jaringan Heuristik digunakan untuk memprediksi persentase distribusi PDB atas Harga Berlaku menurut Lapangan Usaha. Tujuan studi ini adalah melakukan prediksi secara simultan atas seluruh variabel lapangan usaha yang berkontribusi pada PDB. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa Jaringan Heuristik telah mampu melakukan prediksi dan peramalan secara optimal melalui proses komputasi yang cepat dengan hasil yang signifikan, serta menghasilkan error prediksi yang dapat diterima.

Keywords


PDB; prediksi; metode statistik; metode machine learning; heuristik

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