Time Series Forecast of Tuberculosis Cases in Samarinda City: The Box-Jenkins Method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30872/j.kes.pasmi.kal.v9i1.18181Abstract
Prediksi insidensi TB diperlukan sebagai upaya pencegahan dan pengendalian TB di Kota Samarinda. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi insidensi TB tahun 2025 di Kota Samarinda. Model prediksi TB dikembangkan menggunakan metode Box-Jenkins berdasarkan analisis insidensi dari tahun 2020 sampai November 2024. Model terbaik yang terpilih adalah SARIMA(0,1,1). Hasil model menunjukkan rata-rata kesalahan prediksi sebesar 0,81 dengan RMSE sebesar 31,10 dan MAE sebesar 24,91. Nilai MPE sebesar -1,26 dan MAPE sebesar 12,10% menunjukkan kesalahan prediksi yang dapat diterima dengan bias yang kecil. Nilai MASE sebesar 0,44 dan ACF1 residual sebesar 0,08 menunjukkan tidak adanya autokorelasi signifikan dalam residual sehingga menghasilkan prediksi yang valid dan akurat untuk kejadian TB di Kota Samarinda. Studi ini menunjukkan bahwa model SARIMA(0,1,1) merupakan pilihan yang optimal untuk memprediksi insidensi TB di Kota Samarinda. Model ini memprediksi kasus TB di Samarinda naik dari 296 (Januari 2024) menjadi 296 (Januari 2025), dengan interval kepercayaan 90% pada Januari 2025 sebesar 220–372 kasus. Hasil prediksi dapat digunakan untuk mendukung upaya pencegahan dan pengendalian TB di Samarinda.References
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