Implementasi Metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain untuk Prediksi Harga Telur Puyuh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30872/jim.v16i2.5251Keywords:
Instabilitas Harga, Telur Puyuh, Fuzzy Time Series Markov ChainAbstract
Peternakan burung puyuh merupakan salah satu sektor peternakan yang paling efisien dalam menyediakan daging dan telur serta merupakan bahan makanan sumber hewani yang bergizi tinggi. Sama seperti pada umumnya komoditas ternak lain, pasar telur puyuh juga terkadang mengalami fluktuasi harga. Peningkatan peroduksi telur menjadi faktor utama inflasi. Oleh karena itu, pembuatan sistem berbasis teknologi yang dapat memberikan gambaran harga telur puyuh dimasa yang akan datang, hal ini akan sangat membantu dalam kelangsungan perkembangan usaha ternak. Sistem ini akan sangat bermanfaat untuk peternak yang tergabung dalam NS Quail Farm karena mereka dapat mengetahui waktu yang tepat untuk menambah DOQ (Day Old Quail) baru. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung nilai prediksi harga telur puyuh menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain beserta tingkat keakuratan model prediksinya yang diukur dengan parameter MAPE dan MSE berdasarkan hasil output aplikasi prediksi harga emas yang dibuat pada software CodeIgniter metode yang digunakan untuk membangun aplikasi prediksi adalah metode waterfall. Data yang digunakan dalam tulisan ini merupakan data setoran telur perminggu yang diambil selama periode januari 2019 sampai dengan mei 2020. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain memberikan tingkat akurasi yang tinggi dalam memodelkan serta meramalkan harga telur dengan nilai MAPE dan MSE yang kecil.
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