Peramalan Angka Inflasi Kota Samarinda Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus : Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Samarinda)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30872/jim.v14i1.1252Keywords:
Data Mining, Sistem InformasiAbstract
Inflasi merupakan suatu kondisi kenaikan harga-harga umum secara terus menerus yang berhubungan dengan mekanisme pasar dinilai berdsarkan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) oleh Badan Pusat Statistik. Masalah yang dihadapi oleh Badan Pusat Statistik yaitu belum terdapat sistem yang dapat melakukan peramalan angka inflasi untuk 1 tahun mendatang yang dijadikan acuan untuk mengambil tindakan pencegahan. Maka dari itu diperlukan sistem yang dapat melakukan peramalan angka inflasi secara otomatis. Metode yang digunakan yaitu Double Expenontial Smoothing (DES) untuk mendapatkan hasil peramalan angka inflasi yang diproses pada nilai alpha 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, setelah didapatkan hasil peramalan kemudian dicari nilai error terkecil menggunakan Mean Squade Error (MSE) pada nilai alpha 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9. Dihasilkan Sistem Peramalan Angka Inflasi yang dapat dijadikan acauan dalam pengendalian inflasi yang telah diuji menggunakan 60 data angka inflasi, Hasil peramalan terbaik dengan error MSE terkecil pada alpha 0.3 yaitu 0.485239.
References
Amiruddin, I. (2016). Ekonomi Publik. Yogyakarta: CV. Budi utama.
Arsyad, L. (2001). Peramalan Bisnis (Edisi Pert). Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Hendri, T., & Mohammad, M. S. (2003). Manajemen Operasi. Bogor: Grasindo.
Heri, P., & Lukiastuti. (2009). Manajemen Operasi. Yogyakarta: MedPress.
Lieberty, A., & Imbar, V. R. (2015). Sistem Informasi Meramalkan Penjualan Barang dengan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus: PD. Padalarang Jaya). Jurnal Teknik Informatika Dan Sistem Informasi, 1(1), 27–32. https://doi.org/10.1089/dia.2012.0099
Rahmadayanti, R., Susilo, B., & Puspitaningrum, D. (2015). Perbandingan Keakuratan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) dan Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Penjualan Semen di PT Sinar Abadi. Jurnal Rekursif, 3(1), 23–36.
Rosenberg, D., & Steven, M. (2013). Use Case Driven Object Modeling with UML: Theory and Practice (Expert’s Voice in UML Modeling). Apress.
Tanuwijaya, H. (2008). Sistem Informasi Pengendalian Persediaan Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing Pada PT. Bear House. STIKOM Jurnal, 12(2), 97–104.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright Transfer StatementThe copyright of this article is transferred to Informatika Mulawarman : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer and when the article is accepted for publication. the authors transfer all and all rights into and to paper including but not limited to all copyrights in the Informatika Mulawarman. The author represents and warrants that the original is the original and that he/she is the author of this paper unless the material is clearly identified as the original source, with notification of the permission of the copyright owner if necessary. The author states that he has the authority and authority to make and carry out this task.
The author states that:
- This paper has not been published in the same form elsewhere.
- This will not be submitted elsewhere for publication prior to acceptance/rejection by this Journal.
A Copyright permission is obtained for material published elsewhere and who require permission for this reproduction. Furthermore, I / We hereby transfer the unlimited publication rights of the above paper to Informatika Mulawarman : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer. Copyright transfer includes exclusive rights to reproduce and distribute articles, including reprints, translations, photographic reproductions, microforms, electronic forms (offline, online), or other similar reproductions.
The author's mark is appropriate for and accepts responsibility for releasing this material on behalf of any and all coauthor. This Agreement shall be signed by at least one author who has obtained the consent of the co-author (s) if applicable. After the submission of this agreement is signed by the author concerned, the amendment of the author or in the order of the author listed shall not be accepted.
Rights / Terms and Conditions Saved
- The author keeps all proprietary rights in every process, procedure, or article creation described in Work.
- The author may reproduce or permit others to reproduce the work or derivative works for the author's personal use or for the use of the company, provided that the source and the Informatika Mulawarman copyright notice are indicated, the copy is not used in any way implying the Journal of Informatika Mulawarman (JIM) approval of the product or service from any company, and the copy itself is not offered for sale.
- Although authors are permitted to reuse all or part of the Works in other works, this does not include granting third-party requests to reprint, republish, or other types of reuse.
Informatika Mulawarman by http://e-journals.unmul.ac.id/index.php/JIM/index is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
under the CC BY-SA license, authors and other users are able to reprint, distribute or use the material for commercial purposes so long as they give attribution to the journal Informatika Mulawarman and license the republished material under the same license.
